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Книга Catastrophic Success Alexander B. Downes

Catastrophic Success

Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong

Автор: Alexander B. Downes
Език: Английски език
Корици: С твърди корици
Издател: Cornell University Press
Наличност: Външен склад
Изпращаме след 14-21 дни
62.77 € 122.76 лв
In Catastrophic Success, Alexander B. Downes compiles all instances of regime change around the worl...

Информация за книгата

Автор
Alexander B. Downes
Език
Английски език
Корици
Книга - С твърди корици
Издадена
2021
страници
424
EAN
9781501761140
ISBN
1501761145
Enbook ID
36975209
Издател
Cornell University Press
Теглоt
28
Размери
152 x 229 x 33

Пълно описание

In Catastrophic Success, Alexander B. Downes compiles all instances of regime change around the world over the past two centuries. Drawing on this impressive data set, Downes shows that regime change increases the likelihood of civil war and violent leader removal in target states and fails to reduce the probability of conflict between intervening states and their targets. As Downes demonstrates, when a state confronts an obstinate or dangerous adversary, the lure of toppling its government and establishing a friendly administration is strong. The historical record, however, shows that foreign-imposed regime change is, in the long term, neither cheap, easy, nor consistently successful. The strategic impulse to forcibly oust antagonistic or non-compliant regimes overlooks two key facts. First, the act of overthrowing a foreign government sometimes causes its military to disintegrate, sending thousands of armed men into the countryside where they often wage an insurgency against the intervener. Second, externally-imposed leaders face a domestic audience in addition to an external one, and the two typically want different things. These divergent preferences place imposed leaders in a quandary: taking actions that please one invariably alienates the other. Regime change thus drives a wedge between external patrons and their domestic proteges or between proteges and their people. Catastrophic Success provides sober counsel for leaders and diplomats. Regime change may appear an expeditious solution, but states are usually better off relying on other tools of influence, such as diplomacy. Regime change, Downes urges, should be reserved for exceptional cases. Interveners must recognize that, absent a rare set of promising preconditions, regime change often instigates a new period of uncertainty and conflict that impedes their interests from being realized.

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