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Книга Superpronosticadores PHILIP E. TETLOCK

Superpronosticadores

Автор: PHILIP E. TETLOCK, DAN GARDNER
Език: Испански език
Корици: С меки корици
Издател: Katz editores
Наличност: Външен склад в ограничено количество
Изпращаме след 13-18 дни
31.97 € 62.52 лв
Cada vez más, la sociedad contemporánea pide a los "expertos"predicciones sobre el futuro, y sobre e...

Информация за книгата

Автор
PHILIP E. TETLOCK, DAN GARDNER
Език
Испански език
Корици
Книга - С меки корици
Издадена
2017
страници
326
EAN
9788415917274
ISBN
8415917279
Enbook ID
16092519
Издател
Katz editores
Теглоt
490
Размери
150 x 230

Пълно описание

Cada vez más, la sociedad contemporánea pide a los "expertos"predicciones sobre el futuro, y sobre esas predicciones se tomandecisiones geopolíticas, de políticas públicas, de inversión,etcétera. Sin embargo, Philip Tetlock y su coautor Dan Gardnermuestran, con un impresionante corpus de evidencia empírica recogida a lo largo de a?os de investigación, que los "pronosticadores expertos" tienen la misma posibilidad de acertar un evento futuro que unchimpancé. En contraposición, los autores se centran en estudiar a los "superpronosticadores": personas que tienen una gran capacidad depredicción. Y, curiosamente, esas personas son "gente común", no sonespecialistas, ni tienen acceso a información privilegiada. Porquepredecir bien el futuro, ense?a 'Superpronosticadores', tiene que vercon "un modo de pensar", esto es, con una mente abierta, cuidadosa,curiosa y autocrítica, que realiza una predicción inicial y luegometiculosamente la ajusta en función de cada nueva evidencia oinformación relacionada con el tema.

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